Just Good Enough to Lose?

To me there are four major stages that a professional team goes through.

1. Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter Here. You have no expectations at all for this team, except that they will stink. They are bad. You know they are bad. They are not going to be good for a while, and have accepted it. Hopefully not a long while (more than 3-4 years), but that can and does happen – just look at Oakland, or Buffalo, or Cleveland (or don’t, which might be better advice given how awful they are). This type of team is usually very young or extremely poorly coached. And/Or the owner is an idiot who keeps interfering with the team and never gives it a chance to get better (see Snyder, Daniel, Washington Redskins). But the beauty of this type of team (or an ugliness that can be kind of endearing – a loveable loserness that the Chicago Cubs teams carried off so well for so long, but which they’ve now lost due to high expectations) is that because you have no expectations you can enjoy just watching football. Or you can take it or leave it as you chose and find something else to devote your time to on Sundays. The pressure is off! If they win you feel good all week. If they lose, well they’re supposed to lose! If you have to watch the games you can watch with an eye towards the future. Who is not going to be there the next year? What position do they need the most help with? Are they going to have a top pick in the draft (highly likely)? Who might be available? In other words, you can play general manager. That can be interesting to do, if it doesn’t last too long (again, see Oakland, Washington, or the Cleveland Browns). Of course if it does last for years and years (and believe me, I’ve been there, with the Red Sox, Celtics, Bruins and Patriots over the past 30 years of fandom, each of whom has had an extended period as a totally hopeless team as well as extended periods where they were stuck in the doldrums) it can seem like it will never end. But eventually it will. Just hope you have enough patience to be there and still care when they get better. I finally gave up on the Bruins after nearly two decades of mediocre- to- bad teams (thanks Jeremy Jacobs! You’re penny pinching ways killed this team – it’s dead to me now) even though they are now pretty good again.

2. Amidst the Darkness, Some Light. This is usually a young team that had been bad for a while that is looking like they’re starting to put the pieces together. They may not be good enough to make the playoffs (but sometimes can squeak in) but they are often fun to watch, and you can see that if they put a few more pieces into place they might be a very good team (barring a catastrophic injury). Something big has happened. A new coach. A great draft. Both. Don’t be confused into thinking the Dolphins fit this category, despite their sudden emergence last year in winning 11 games. They had a fluky year, fueled by a gimmick play that somehow worked all year long, and because the rest of the teams in their division had major problems (Buffalo was Buffalo, The Jets had Mangini and Favre killing them, and the Patriots lost Brady eight plays into the season). The Dolphins have not yet proven they belong in this category, judging by their 1-3 record. They could easily end up 5-11. San Francisco, however, does belong here. They have a good coach in Mike Singletary. They’ve done some good drafting. They just need a better quarterback and a playmaker on defense and they could be good. There’s definitely some hope there. The same goes for Atlanta (karma for getting rid of Michael Vick?). They may be contenders in a year or so if they keep healthy and don’t lose too many guys to free agency. Matt Ryan (love the name, hate his alma mater) was the best pick in the draft two years ago.

3. Stuck in the Doldrums. These are teams that were either contenders and are suffering a drop off due to age, injury or free agency loses, or they are teams that were up-and-comers that just never made the leap to full-fledged contenders. They may just get into the playoffs, or just miss them, but they are destined to be just good enough to lose (early in the playoffs if they get there, or to most of the good teams if they just miss the playoffs). Indianapolis was in this category for a couple of years, but thanks to Peyton Manning they are contenders again. Manning was hurt, and took a year to get better. Now he is playing like the former MVP and Super Bowl winner that he is. I may not like him, but I respect him. Three teams that are in this category are Chicago, San Diego and my own New England Patriots. Chicago fans always said the only thing they needed was a better quarterback. They cheered when they traded Kyle Orton for Jay Cutler. Only I don’t believe Cutler is the kind of guy who wins championships. He makes too many mistakes, and is a petulant whining jerk to boot. He’s a tease, just like Jake Plummer was. San Diego is getting old. Phillip Rivers looks like he’ll be a good quarterback, but their best players on defense (Shawn Merriman, getting old quickly now that he’s off the juice) and running back (LaDanian Tomlinson) are no longer elite players and they have no replacements in the pipeline for them. They’ll hang on for a bit, maybe even winning their division, but they have no chance at all to contend for a title. Sadly, the Patriots fit this category too. Brady is coming back off a serious injury that cost him the entire year. History says it will take a full year before he recovers (see Manning, Peyton or Palmer, Carson) if he ever does. They are rebuilding their entire defense, having lost several key players over the past couple of seasons. They have not drafted particularly well , especially on offense (Lawrence “Roman” Maroney is a total bust at running back, as was Chad Jackson at wide receiver). They have lost some good coaching talent (Josh McDaniels). They are getting older in some spots (Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Matt Light), while being very young in others (nearly the entire defensive secondary and linebackers). And the teams in their division (the Jets and Dolphins anyway) are getting better too. Everything points to this year (at least) being a year where they just barely make the playoffs and then get bounced early. They are struggling offensively. Their defense is in transition. The one glimmer of hope for the future is that they have lots of draft picks and the youth of the defensive secondary. It may take a year before we know if the new guys on defense (Guyton, Chung, Butler, Brace, Pryor, Crable, McGowan) will be good. If so, then the defense could be in good shape for the future. But if not, they could continue to be just good enough to lose. They need to find a viable running back, and a wide receiver to replace (or compliment) Moss at some point. And draft a new left tackle to replace Matt Light. And Brady must again become the MVP and (multi) Super Bowl winning quarterback he was before his injury. If he never recovers fully the offense will continue to struggle, and they’ll be an also-ran; a team that goes 7-9 or 9-7 year in and year out until something dramatic changes. This is what happened with the Patriots in the late 90’s (the Pete Carroll years) and what happened to the Red Sox in the late 80’s through mid 90’s, the Celtics in the early to late 90’s (until they became totally hopeless in the late 90’s to mid 00’s) and what happened with the Boston Bruins from the mid 80’s until……..well, now. To me this is the worst of all possible stages for your favorite team to be in. You remember vividly the glory years (after all, it was just yesterday) or you bemoan that one thing your team never found to put it over the top to become a contender or champion. Every loss seems unbearable, especially when you lose to a team you feel certain you are as good as or better. And even some of your wins feel like losses because the team had to fight entirely too hard to beat a bad team. The signs are everywhere that it is not going to be your year, and that you’ll be lucky to even make the playoffs, when making the playoffs used to be a given. You fear that instead of getting better, your team is only going to get worse, to the point where it could become hopeless for a few years, which would make games even less fun until you are willing to accept that they are hopeless.

4. As Good as it Gets. When your team is a serious contender. Even if you don’t win it all you enjoy the process, and the prospect of maybe winning a title with a little luck. Maybe you need one more good player. Or one player needs to go from good to great. Or you get a new coach. Or the stars just align themselves and everyone plays as good as they can. Nothing is better than either winning or knowing you are so close that it is bound to happen eventually (see the Pittsburg Steelers, who were stuck in the doldrums for years until they lucked out with Ben Rothlesberger). You devour the sports page and watch ESPN constantly waiting for the highlights of your team’s latest victory. You debate with friends and family over whether this really is the year. You enjoy it when people profess to hate your team, because you know it’s just jealousy. Every game is fun to watch, and if they lose you can shrug it off as just one bad day and start looking forward to the next game. You feel like you are part of something. You use the word “WE” when talking about the team, as if you are a member and not just a fan. If you are lucky this feeling can last for years (The Boston Celtics in the 60’s, The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Reds in the 70’s, The Edmonton Oilers, San Francisco 49’rs, Boston Celtics and LA Lakers in the 80’s, the Dallas Cowboys in the 90’s and the New England Patriots in the early to mid 00’s are a few examples) . But there is a flip side to it, and it is this: It can’t last forever, and when it ends you realize that you never appreciated it as much as you should. You were addicted to that feeling of having a great team (or teams) and the comedown can be particularly nasty. Teams you used to dominate start beating you, and their fans feel justified in taunting you over it (revenge can be sweet).

I have to admit, I have been spoiled the past 8 years. Three Super Bowls won by the Patriots (and one lost SB that should have been a win). Two World Series wins by the Red Sox. One NBA Championship by the Celtics. Boston was the best sports city in the world. It seemed like it would never end. But of course it had to. The Red Sox are getting older, as are the Celtics. Their runs may be over. The Patriots have been so good for so long that it is inevitable that there would be a period when they had difficulties. Last year was a lost year for the Pats without Brady. They had a lot of guys who were at their peak, or just beyond their peak. A healthy Brady might have meant another Super Bowl. But not only do they lose last year, this year also could be a lost year as he gets better. They could have a quick turnaround, but they would need to develop some of their draft picks into solid players and continue to make good picks. If not they could be stuck in the doldrums for a few more years, until Brady gets too old and has to be replaced. When that happens they may find themselves a bad team until they can find another quarterback. And there’s no telling how bad they’ll be or for how long. But for now they seem to be just good enough to lose.