Ever see the Pixar movie The Incredibles? There is a scene early on when Mr. Incredible, now an insurance agent, is told by his boss that insurance companies are “not in the business of providing insurance, but in the business of making money for (their) stockholders.”
They want your money, but woe betides the hapless customer who makes more than a single claim. Even if that claim is not paid, it will go against you, and you could have your insurance cancelled unceremoniously. Or, as in our case, with a form letter. That’s right, even if they deny your claim, the simple fact that you make one can get your insurance cancelled. This is our story.
In 1994 my wife took out a policy with Erie Insurance, for Auto/Condo/Renter’s insurance. Between that time and today she has made two very small claims on her auto insurance. Once when someone keyed her car, and this past year when the creek across the street from our house flooded and caused minor damage to her car. Both of these claims were for a few hundred dollars. When I moved to Virginia in 2006 I switched my insurance to Erie also, so that it would all be bundled together.
In 2007 my wife and I bought a house. According to the letter we received Erie asserts that we made a claim for water damage in 2007. Neither my wife nor I recall any such claim. In any case, no payout was made. But it still counts as Strike One against us.
In 2010 we made a claim when the drain pipe in our neighborhood backed up into our basement, causing damage to the basement and the loss of thousands of dollars of personal property. This claim was paid out. Strike Two.
In 2011 we also made a claim, when a severe rainstorm caused water to seep into our basement again, although this time is was simple rainwater damage, and our agent said our insurance did not cover it, so again, there was no payout made. STRIKE THREE! Goodbye insurance! We got a letter in the mail the other day saying that “due to frequency of claims” our insurance was being Non-Renewed.
So in essence, over an 18 YEAR period, my wife has made two very small claims on her auto coverage, and we have made (at least as far as we are concerned) 2 claims for water damage, only one of which was accepted and paid out. And yet I am now told by my agent that she can find no regular insurance company that will write our Homeowners policy with the 3 claims. She is having to go through one of her surplus lines companies, which is sure to cost us hundreds or thousands of dollars.
To say I am disappointed about the Non-renewal of our policy would be an understatement. Disgusted would be a better word. After 18 years and thousands of dollars in premiums, to have our insurance cancelled for “frequency of claims” seems excessive and unfair. I suspect that this decision was probably not made by an actual person, but by an actuarial table. If so, I suggest that in future they might want to have real people making decisions instead of programs.
We plan on never using Erie again (as if they’d even have us because we are so demanding, actually expecting an insurance company to, you know, give us INSURANCE when we PAY FOR IT). And we plan on telling everyone we know not to use them. We’ll be blogging. We’ll be posting on Facebook. And on Consumer’s Checkbook too. It may not help us, but maybe one person will see our story and be forewarned.
So just a word to the wise. Just because you are making those monthly payments doesn’t mean they can’t just cancel your insurance and bad mouth you to every other insurance company in the world if you are presumptuous enough to actually expect them to do what you have been paying them for, even if you’ve been doing so for decades. Remember, Insurance companies aren’t in the business of providing insurance. They are in the business of making money for their stockholders.
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
The residue of design
So, I have been hearing people say that the Patriots got lucky on Sunday. I agree. They were lucky that the potential game-tying field goal was missed, and that the potential game-winning touchdown was missed. But luck is the residue of design. If you think that the better teams are more often more lucky than the bad teams you would be right. But they are not good because they are lucky. They are lucky because they are good. Good teams are usually more disciplined, and by that I mean that they pay attention to little details, and don’t make the same mistakes over and over, and never quit on a play until it is completely over. Because they seem to always do the right thing, and don’t beat themselves the teams they face often feel more pressure. But since they are not as disciplined and may not be as mentally tough they sometimes make even more mistakes than they would against a lesser or equal team. These “extra” mistakes can be viewed as lucky breaks. Or you could just say that the winning team MADE its own luck.
Take the two biggest plays in the Patriots win against Baltimore. First, the non-touchdown catch with 27 seconds in the game. Lee Evans had the ball. For a split second. But the cornerback (Sterling Moore) had been taught over and over since coming to the Patriots to never give up on this type of play. The receiver MUST have both feet down and show control of the ball for a touchdown to be called. So Moore did what he had been drilled to do, over and over and over for the past few months. He slapped at the ball, and knocked it out of the receiver’s hands at the very same moment his second foot was coming down. Clearly, he did not have both feet down with control of the ball, and so it was deemed an incomplete pass. By perhaps one-tenth of a second, the Patriots had life. Lucky? Maybe. But luck by design.
The second biggest play was the missed field goal. A 32 yard field goal is nearly automatic in the NFL. Nearly, but not always. The Patriots didn’t quit playing. They gave it their best effort to block the kick. They didn’t, but the kicker HAD to be worried about it, even if just by a little bit. And replays showed that the kicker was not ready to go onto the field, and had to run on and kick it with time running out on the play clock. So he was rushed, on top of being nervous. The Ravens had a timeout left, but NEVER CONSIDERED USING IT. Had they done so the kicker would have had time to compose himself, and to make sure he was 100% ready. Was his missing the kick luck, or was that luck the residue of poor time management by the coach and nervousness on the part of the kicker?
And speaking of luck, the Ravens had their share of it too on Sunday. Tom Brady had a poor-to-mediocre game, by his own admission. In the first quarter he missed a wide open Rob Gronkowski, who would have walked in untouched to the endzone. It was only a 10-12 yard pass. If Brady has that throw to make 1000 times under those conditions how many times do you think he fails to complete it? Maybe once or twice? He also threw two bone-headed interceptions. Not just poor throws, but inconceivably awful throws. How many times do you think they might happen if he had them to do over again? Again, maybe once or twice in a thousand times. Had Brady completed the pass to Gronkowski and only thrown one of the two interceptions, the Patriots would have scored 4 more points (the difference between the field goal they eventually kicked and the touchdown they should have had) and possibly given up 3 fewer points (the Ravens scored a field goal after the first interception). So that is a minimum of 4 and a maximum of 7 more points they would have had. Instead of only being up 3 points at the end of the game they would have been up by 7, or even 10. And if they were I suspect Brady never even throws the second interception, because he would have played it more conservatively.
The simple fact is that each team had a little luck during the day. The difference is that the Patriots just did a little more with theirs than the Ravens did. And THAT isn’t luck.
Take the two biggest plays in the Patriots win against Baltimore. First, the non-touchdown catch with 27 seconds in the game. Lee Evans had the ball. For a split second. But the cornerback (Sterling Moore) had been taught over and over since coming to the Patriots to never give up on this type of play. The receiver MUST have both feet down and show control of the ball for a touchdown to be called. So Moore did what he had been drilled to do, over and over and over for the past few months. He slapped at the ball, and knocked it out of the receiver’s hands at the very same moment his second foot was coming down. Clearly, he did not have both feet down with control of the ball, and so it was deemed an incomplete pass. By perhaps one-tenth of a second, the Patriots had life. Lucky? Maybe. But luck by design.
The second biggest play was the missed field goal. A 32 yard field goal is nearly automatic in the NFL. Nearly, but not always. The Patriots didn’t quit playing. They gave it their best effort to block the kick. They didn’t, but the kicker HAD to be worried about it, even if just by a little bit. And replays showed that the kicker was not ready to go onto the field, and had to run on and kick it with time running out on the play clock. So he was rushed, on top of being nervous. The Ravens had a timeout left, but NEVER CONSIDERED USING IT. Had they done so the kicker would have had time to compose himself, and to make sure he was 100% ready. Was his missing the kick luck, or was that luck the residue of poor time management by the coach and nervousness on the part of the kicker?
And speaking of luck, the Ravens had their share of it too on Sunday. Tom Brady had a poor-to-mediocre game, by his own admission. In the first quarter he missed a wide open Rob Gronkowski, who would have walked in untouched to the endzone. It was only a 10-12 yard pass. If Brady has that throw to make 1000 times under those conditions how many times do you think he fails to complete it? Maybe once or twice? He also threw two bone-headed interceptions. Not just poor throws, but inconceivably awful throws. How many times do you think they might happen if he had them to do over again? Again, maybe once or twice in a thousand times. Had Brady completed the pass to Gronkowski and only thrown one of the two interceptions, the Patriots would have scored 4 more points (the difference between the field goal they eventually kicked and the touchdown they should have had) and possibly given up 3 fewer points (the Ravens scored a field goal after the first interception). So that is a minimum of 4 and a maximum of 7 more points they would have had. Instead of only being up 3 points at the end of the game they would have been up by 7, or even 10. And if they were I suspect Brady never even throws the second interception, because he would have played it more conservatively.
The simple fact is that each team had a little luck during the day. The difference is that the Patriots just did a little more with theirs than the Ravens did. And THAT isn’t luck.
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Monday, October 19, 2009
Who was looking good yesterday?
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Just Good Enough to Lose?
To me there are four major stages that a professional team goes through.
1. Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter Here. You have no expectations at all for this team, except that they will stink. They are bad. You know they are bad. They are not going to be good for a while, and have accepted it. Hopefully not a long while (more than 3-4 years), but that can and does happen – just look at Oakland, or Buffalo, or Cleveland (or don’t, which might be better advice given how awful they are). This type of team is usually very young or extremely poorly coached. And/Or the owner is an idiot who keeps interfering with the team and never gives it a chance to get better (see Snyder, Daniel, Washington Redskins). But the beauty of this type of team (or an ugliness that can be kind of endearing – a loveable loserness that the Chicago Cubs teams carried off so well for so long, but which they’ve now lost due to high expectations) is that because you have no expectations you can enjoy just watching football. Or you can take it or leave it as you chose and find something else to devote your time to on Sundays. The pressure is off! If they win you feel good all week. If they lose, well they’re supposed to lose! If you have to watch the games you can watch with an eye towards the future. Who is not going to be there the next year? What position do they need the most help with? Are they going to have a top pick in the draft (highly likely)? Who might be available? In other words, you can play general manager. That can be interesting to do, if it doesn’t last too long (again, see Oakland, Washington, or the Cleveland Browns). Of course if it does last for years and years (and believe me, I’ve been there, with the Red Sox, Celtics, Bruins and Patriots over the past 30 years of fandom, each of whom has had an extended period as a totally hopeless team as well as extended periods where they were stuck in the doldrums) it can seem like it will never end. But eventually it will. Just hope you have enough patience to be there and still care when they get better. I finally gave up on the Bruins after nearly two decades of mediocre- to- bad teams (thanks Jeremy Jacobs! You’re penny pinching ways killed this team – it’s dead to me now) even though they are now pretty good again.
2. Amidst the Darkness, Some Light. This is usually a young team that had been bad for a while that is looking like they’re starting to put the pieces together. They may not be good enough to make the playoffs (but sometimes can squeak in) but they are often fun to watch, and you can see that if they put a few more pieces into place they might be a very good team (barring a catastrophic injury). Something big has happened. A new coach. A great draft. Both. Don’t be confused into thinking the Dolphins fit this category, despite their sudden emergence last year in winning 11 games. They had a fluky year, fueled by a gimmick play that somehow worked all year long, and because the rest of the teams in their division had major problems (Buffalo was Buffalo, The Jets had Mangini and Favre killing them, and the Patriots lost Brady eight plays into the season). The Dolphins have not yet proven they belong in this category, judging by their 1-3 record. They could easily end up 5-11. San Francisco, however, does belong here. They have a good coach in Mike Singletary. They’ve done some good drafting. They just need a better quarterback and a playmaker on defense and they could be good. There’s definitely some hope there. The same goes for Atlanta (karma for getting rid of Michael Vick?). They may be contenders in a year or so if they keep healthy and don’t lose too many guys to free agency. Matt Ryan (love the name, hate his alma mater) was the best pick in the draft two years ago.
3. Stuck in the Doldrums. These are teams that were either contenders and are suffering a drop off due to age, injury or free agency loses, or they are teams that were up-and-comers that just never made the leap to full-fledged contenders. They may just get into the playoffs, or just miss them, but they are destined to be just good enough to lose (early in the playoffs if they get there, or to most of the good teams if they just miss the playoffs). Indianapolis was in this category for a couple of years, but thanks to Peyton Manning they are contenders again. Manning was hurt, and took a year to get better. Now he is playing like the former MVP and Super Bowl winner that he is. I may not like him, but I respect him. Three teams that are in this category are Chicago, San Diego and my own New England Patriots. Chicago fans always said the only thing they needed was a better quarterback. They cheered when they traded Kyle Orton for Jay Cutler. Only I don’t believe Cutler is the kind of guy who wins championships. He makes too many mistakes, and is a petulant whining jerk to boot. He’s a tease, just like Jake Plummer was. San Diego is getting old. Phillip Rivers looks like he’ll be a good quarterback, but their best players on defense (Shawn Merriman, getting old quickly now that he’s off the juice) and running back (LaDanian Tomlinson) are no longer elite players and they have no replacements in the pipeline for them. They’ll hang on for a bit, maybe even winning their division, but they have no chance at all to contend for a title. Sadly, the Patriots fit this category too. Brady is coming back off a serious injury that cost him the entire year. History says it will take a full year before he recovers (see Manning, Peyton or Palmer, Carson) if he ever does. They are rebuilding their entire defense, having lost several key players over the past couple of seasons. They have not drafted particularly well , especially on offense (Lawrence “Roman” Maroney is a total bust at running back, as was Chad Jackson at wide receiver). They have lost some good coaching talent (Josh McDaniels). They are getting older in some spots (Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Matt Light), while being very young in others (nearly the entire defensive secondary and linebackers). And the teams in their division (the Jets and Dolphins anyway) are getting better too. Everything points to this year (at least) being a year where they just barely make the playoffs and then get bounced early. They are struggling offensively. Their defense is in transition. The one glimmer of hope for the future is that they have lots of draft picks and the youth of the defensive secondary. It may take a year before we know if the new guys on defense (Guyton, Chung, Butler, Brace, Pryor, Crable, McGowan) will be good. If so, then the defense could be in good shape for the future. But if not, they could continue to be just good enough to lose. They need to find a viable running back, and a wide receiver to replace (or compliment) Moss at some point. And draft a new left tackle to replace Matt Light. And Brady must again become the MVP and (multi) Super Bowl winning quarterback he was before his injury. If he never recovers fully the offense will continue to struggle, and they’ll be an also-ran; a team that goes 7-9 or 9-7 year in and year out until something dramatic changes. This is what happened with the Patriots in the late 90’s (the Pete Carroll years) and what happened to the Red Sox in the late 80’s through mid 90’s, the Celtics in the early to late 90’s (until they became totally hopeless in the late 90’s to mid 00’s) and what happened with the Boston Bruins from the mid 80’s until……..well, now. To me this is the worst of all possible stages for your favorite team to be in. You remember vividly the glory years (after all, it was just yesterday) or you bemoan that one thing your team never found to put it over the top to become a contender or champion. Every loss seems unbearable, especially when you lose to a team you feel certain you are as good as or better. And even some of your wins feel like losses because the team had to fight entirely too hard to beat a bad team. The signs are everywhere that it is not going to be your year, and that you’ll be lucky to even make the playoffs, when making the playoffs used to be a given. You fear that instead of getting better, your team is only going to get worse, to the point where it could become hopeless for a few years, which would make games even less fun until you are willing to accept that they are hopeless.
4. As Good as it Gets. When your team is a serious contender. Even if you don’t win it all you enjoy the process, and the prospect of maybe winning a title with a little luck. Maybe you need one more good player. Or one player needs to go from good to great. Or you get a new coach. Or the stars just align themselves and everyone plays as good as they can. Nothing is better than either winning or knowing you are so close that it is bound to happen eventually (see the Pittsburg Steelers, who were stuck in the doldrums for years until they lucked out with Ben Rothlesberger). You devour the sports page and watch ESPN constantly waiting for the highlights of your team’s latest victory. You debate with friends and family over whether this really is the year. You enjoy it when people profess to hate your team, because you know it’s just jealousy. Every game is fun to watch, and if they lose you can shrug it off as just one bad day and start looking forward to the next game. You feel like you are part of something. You use the word “WE” when talking about the team, as if you are a member and not just a fan. If you are lucky this feeling can last for years (The Boston Celtics in the 60’s, The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Reds in the 70’s, The Edmonton Oilers, San Francisco 49’rs, Boston Celtics and LA Lakers in the 80’s, the Dallas Cowboys in the 90’s and the New England Patriots in the early to mid 00’s are a few examples) . But there is a flip side to it, and it is this: It can’t last forever, and when it ends you realize that you never appreciated it as much as you should. You were addicted to that feeling of having a great team (or teams) and the comedown can be particularly nasty. Teams you used to dominate start beating you, and their fans feel justified in taunting you over it (revenge can be sweet).
I have to admit, I have been spoiled the past 8 years. Three Super Bowls won by the Patriots (and one lost SB that should have been a win). Two World Series wins by the Red Sox. One NBA Championship by the Celtics. Boston was the best sports city in the world. It seemed like it would never end. But of course it had to. The Red Sox are getting older, as are the Celtics. Their runs may be over. The Patriots have been so good for so long that it is inevitable that there would be a period when they had difficulties. Last year was a lost year for the Pats without Brady. They had a lot of guys who were at their peak, or just beyond their peak. A healthy Brady might have meant another Super Bowl. But not only do they lose last year, this year also could be a lost year as he gets better. They could have a quick turnaround, but they would need to develop some of their draft picks into solid players and continue to make good picks. If not they could be stuck in the doldrums for a few more years, until Brady gets too old and has to be replaced. When that happens they may find themselves a bad team until they can find another quarterback. And there’s no telling how bad they’ll be or for how long. But for now they seem to be just good enough to lose.
1. Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter Here. You have no expectations at all for this team, except that they will stink. They are bad. You know they are bad. They are not going to be good for a while, and have accepted it. Hopefully not a long while (more than 3-4 years), but that can and does happen – just look at Oakland, or Buffalo, or Cleveland (or don’t, which might be better advice given how awful they are). This type of team is usually very young or extremely poorly coached. And/Or the owner is an idiot who keeps interfering with the team and never gives it a chance to get better (see Snyder, Daniel, Washington Redskins). But the beauty of this type of team (or an ugliness that can be kind of endearing – a loveable loserness that the Chicago Cubs teams carried off so well for so long, but which they’ve now lost due to high expectations) is that because you have no expectations you can enjoy just watching football. Or you can take it or leave it as you chose and find something else to devote your time to on Sundays. The pressure is off! If they win you feel good all week. If they lose, well they’re supposed to lose! If you have to watch the games you can watch with an eye towards the future. Who is not going to be there the next year? What position do they need the most help with? Are they going to have a top pick in the draft (highly likely)? Who might be available? In other words, you can play general manager. That can be interesting to do, if it doesn’t last too long (again, see Oakland, Washington, or the Cleveland Browns). Of course if it does last for years and years (and believe me, I’ve been there, with the Red Sox, Celtics, Bruins and Patriots over the past 30 years of fandom, each of whom has had an extended period as a totally hopeless team as well as extended periods where they were stuck in the doldrums) it can seem like it will never end. But eventually it will. Just hope you have enough patience to be there and still care when they get better. I finally gave up on the Bruins after nearly two decades of mediocre- to- bad teams (thanks Jeremy Jacobs! You’re penny pinching ways killed this team – it’s dead to me now) even though they are now pretty good again.
2. Amidst the Darkness, Some Light. This is usually a young team that had been bad for a while that is looking like they’re starting to put the pieces together. They may not be good enough to make the playoffs (but sometimes can squeak in) but they are often fun to watch, and you can see that if they put a few more pieces into place they might be a very good team (barring a catastrophic injury). Something big has happened. A new coach. A great draft. Both. Don’t be confused into thinking the Dolphins fit this category, despite their sudden emergence last year in winning 11 games. They had a fluky year, fueled by a gimmick play that somehow worked all year long, and because the rest of the teams in their division had major problems (Buffalo was Buffalo, The Jets had Mangini and Favre killing them, and the Patriots lost Brady eight plays into the season). The Dolphins have not yet proven they belong in this category, judging by their 1-3 record. They could easily end up 5-11. San Francisco, however, does belong here. They have a good coach in Mike Singletary. They’ve done some good drafting. They just need a better quarterback and a playmaker on defense and they could be good. There’s definitely some hope there. The same goes for Atlanta (karma for getting rid of Michael Vick?). They may be contenders in a year or so if they keep healthy and don’t lose too many guys to free agency. Matt Ryan (love the name, hate his alma mater) was the best pick in the draft two years ago.
3. Stuck in the Doldrums. These are teams that were either contenders and are suffering a drop off due to age, injury or free agency loses, or they are teams that were up-and-comers that just never made the leap to full-fledged contenders. They may just get into the playoffs, or just miss them, but they are destined to be just good enough to lose (early in the playoffs if they get there, or to most of the good teams if they just miss the playoffs). Indianapolis was in this category for a couple of years, but thanks to Peyton Manning they are contenders again. Manning was hurt, and took a year to get better. Now he is playing like the former MVP and Super Bowl winner that he is. I may not like him, but I respect him. Three teams that are in this category are Chicago, San Diego and my own New England Patriots. Chicago fans always said the only thing they needed was a better quarterback. They cheered when they traded Kyle Orton for Jay Cutler. Only I don’t believe Cutler is the kind of guy who wins championships. He makes too many mistakes, and is a petulant whining jerk to boot. He’s a tease, just like Jake Plummer was. San Diego is getting old. Phillip Rivers looks like he’ll be a good quarterback, but their best players on defense (Shawn Merriman, getting old quickly now that he’s off the juice) and running back (LaDanian Tomlinson) are no longer elite players and they have no replacements in the pipeline for them. They’ll hang on for a bit, maybe even winning their division, but they have no chance at all to contend for a title. Sadly, the Patriots fit this category too. Brady is coming back off a serious injury that cost him the entire year. History says it will take a full year before he recovers (see Manning, Peyton or Palmer, Carson) if he ever does. They are rebuilding their entire defense, having lost several key players over the past couple of seasons. They have not drafted particularly well , especially on offense (Lawrence “Roman” Maroney is a total bust at running back, as was Chad Jackson at wide receiver). They have lost some good coaching talent (Josh McDaniels). They are getting older in some spots (Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Matt Light), while being very young in others (nearly the entire defensive secondary and linebackers). And the teams in their division (the Jets and Dolphins anyway) are getting better too. Everything points to this year (at least) being a year where they just barely make the playoffs and then get bounced early. They are struggling offensively. Their defense is in transition. The one glimmer of hope for the future is that they have lots of draft picks and the youth of the defensive secondary. It may take a year before we know if the new guys on defense (Guyton, Chung, Butler, Brace, Pryor, Crable, McGowan) will be good. If so, then the defense could be in good shape for the future. But if not, they could continue to be just good enough to lose. They need to find a viable running back, and a wide receiver to replace (or compliment) Moss at some point. And draft a new left tackle to replace Matt Light. And Brady must again become the MVP and (multi) Super Bowl winning quarterback he was before his injury. If he never recovers fully the offense will continue to struggle, and they’ll be an also-ran; a team that goes 7-9 or 9-7 year in and year out until something dramatic changes. This is what happened with the Patriots in the late 90’s (the Pete Carroll years) and what happened to the Red Sox in the late 80’s through mid 90’s, the Celtics in the early to late 90’s (until they became totally hopeless in the late 90’s to mid 00’s) and what happened with the Boston Bruins from the mid 80’s until……..well, now. To me this is the worst of all possible stages for your favorite team to be in. You remember vividly the glory years (after all, it was just yesterday) or you bemoan that one thing your team never found to put it over the top to become a contender or champion. Every loss seems unbearable, especially when you lose to a team you feel certain you are as good as or better. And even some of your wins feel like losses because the team had to fight entirely too hard to beat a bad team. The signs are everywhere that it is not going to be your year, and that you’ll be lucky to even make the playoffs, when making the playoffs used to be a given. You fear that instead of getting better, your team is only going to get worse, to the point where it could become hopeless for a few years, which would make games even less fun until you are willing to accept that they are hopeless.
4. As Good as it Gets. When your team is a serious contender. Even if you don’t win it all you enjoy the process, and the prospect of maybe winning a title with a little luck. Maybe you need one more good player. Or one player needs to go from good to great. Or you get a new coach. Or the stars just align themselves and everyone plays as good as they can. Nothing is better than either winning or knowing you are so close that it is bound to happen eventually (see the Pittsburg Steelers, who were stuck in the doldrums for years until they lucked out with Ben Rothlesberger). You devour the sports page and watch ESPN constantly waiting for the highlights of your team’s latest victory. You debate with friends and family over whether this really is the year. You enjoy it when people profess to hate your team, because you know it’s just jealousy. Every game is fun to watch, and if they lose you can shrug it off as just one bad day and start looking forward to the next game. You feel like you are part of something. You use the word “WE” when talking about the team, as if you are a member and not just a fan. If you are lucky this feeling can last for years (The Boston Celtics in the 60’s, The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Reds in the 70’s, The Edmonton Oilers, San Francisco 49’rs, Boston Celtics and LA Lakers in the 80’s, the Dallas Cowboys in the 90’s and the New England Patriots in the early to mid 00’s are a few examples) . But there is a flip side to it, and it is this: It can’t last forever, and when it ends you realize that you never appreciated it as much as you should. You were addicted to that feeling of having a great team (or teams) and the comedown can be particularly nasty. Teams you used to dominate start beating you, and their fans feel justified in taunting you over it (revenge can be sweet).
I have to admit, I have been spoiled the past 8 years. Three Super Bowls won by the Patriots (and one lost SB that should have been a win). Two World Series wins by the Red Sox. One NBA Championship by the Celtics. Boston was the best sports city in the world. It seemed like it would never end. But of course it had to. The Red Sox are getting older, as are the Celtics. Their runs may be over. The Patriots have been so good for so long that it is inevitable that there would be a period when they had difficulties. Last year was a lost year for the Pats without Brady. They had a lot of guys who were at their peak, or just beyond their peak. A healthy Brady might have meant another Super Bowl. But not only do they lose last year, this year also could be a lost year as he gets better. They could have a quick turnaround, but they would need to develop some of their draft picks into solid players and continue to make good picks. If not they could be stuck in the doldrums for a few more years, until Brady gets too old and has to be replaced. When that happens they may find themselves a bad team until they can find another quarterback. And there’s no telling how bad they’ll be or for how long. But for now they seem to be just good enough to lose.
Monday, September 21, 2009
This Could Be A Long Year
Most of the comments I’m seeing are saying that the patriots have problems on defense. I’ll admit , they have a few there (like the inability to get anywhere near the opposing team’s quarterback), but for me the real problem is Tom Brady and the offensive coordinator.
Brady just does not look comfortable out there. He’s shying away from contact, throwing off his back foot, and rushing his throws, which is resulting in a lot of really bad looking passes. Before his injury he was completing nearly 70 percent of his passes, and a lot of the passes that were incomplete were fairly risky ones that were either very close, or in a place where only his guy could make a play on it or it would be on the ground or out of bounds. Now he looks like he’s opting for the safest passes, and is still missing by a lot on many of them because he’s rushing them. Which is funny in a way, because before the play starts he is taking so much time off the clock that they had back-to-back delay of game penalties at one point, and routinely just get the ball snapped with one second left on the clock. There just seems to be no rhythm at all in to the offense. Which brings us to the offensive coordinator.
It seems pretty obvious by now that the guy calling the plays (the quarterback coach, who’s only experience calling plays was for Duke. DUKE!; a team that has lost more games than any other team in college football the past 10 years) has no idea what he is doing. Where are all the screens and misdirection plays that used to be called to slow down the blitz? Where are the quick passes to the wide receivers right at the line of scrimmage to allow them to make yards after the catch? Where are the draw plays? The play action passes. The offense has become too predictable. Losing Jerod Mayo was bad. So was losing Richard Seymour. And Mike Vrabel. But the loss of Josh McDaniels to the Broncos may be the biggest loss the team has suffered. When he called the plays defenses were kept off balance. There was a sense that he would call any play in the playbook at any time. THEY were the confused ones. Now it looks like the patriots’ offense is confused.
I was shocked to see Brady sitting alone on the bench when the defense was on the field, often not even looking at the game. He had his head down a lot, and looked dejected and confused. I’m used to seeing him sitting with the receivers, or standing on the sidelines next to the coaches.
I have a feeling that it could be a very long year. I’ve read stories about other quarterbacks who had the same injury as Tom, and they all say it takes a full year of playing to get back to where they were before. I assumed that because Brady was a better quarterback than the others (Carson Palmer, Dante Culpepper, Randall Cunningham) and didn’t rely on his legs as much (as his head) that he would be back to his old self a lot sooner. It appears I was wrong. My hope now is that the Pats can keep in the playoff hunt for the first half of the year while Brady gets his act together and the offensive coordinator gets a clue, and then they could make a run in the second half of the year. I was predicting 13 wins or better this year. Now I’m hoping for 10, and that 10 will be enough to get into the playoffs. They should be 0-2 now. I think next week they lose to the Falcons. Then they play Baltimore, which suddenly can score points as well as play terrific defense. They could be 1-3 easily after that game. Then they go to Denver. Another potential loss. They should still beat Tennessee and Tampa Bay before the Bye Week, but by then they could be 3-4, when I expected at least 5-2 and quite possibly 6-1. The second half of the year (always assuming that the offense gets it in gear) should be easier. Except for the games against Indianapolis and New Orleans, the rest of the games look winnable. They could go 7-2. That would put them at 10-6 and could get them in the playoffs. Whether they do anything in the playoffs will depend almost entirely on Tom Brady. Right now they don’t even look like a playoff team. And Tom Brady doesn’t look like Tom Brady.
Brady just does not look comfortable out there. He’s shying away from contact, throwing off his back foot, and rushing his throws, which is resulting in a lot of really bad looking passes. Before his injury he was completing nearly 70 percent of his passes, and a lot of the passes that were incomplete were fairly risky ones that were either very close, or in a place where only his guy could make a play on it or it would be on the ground or out of bounds. Now he looks like he’s opting for the safest passes, and is still missing by a lot on many of them because he’s rushing them. Which is funny in a way, because before the play starts he is taking so much time off the clock that they had back-to-back delay of game penalties at one point, and routinely just get the ball snapped with one second left on the clock. There just seems to be no rhythm at all in to the offense. Which brings us to the offensive coordinator.
It seems pretty obvious by now that the guy calling the plays (the quarterback coach, who’s only experience calling plays was for Duke. DUKE!; a team that has lost more games than any other team in college football the past 10 years) has no idea what he is doing. Where are all the screens and misdirection plays that used to be called to slow down the blitz? Where are the quick passes to the wide receivers right at the line of scrimmage to allow them to make yards after the catch? Where are the draw plays? The play action passes. The offense has become too predictable. Losing Jerod Mayo was bad. So was losing Richard Seymour. And Mike Vrabel. But the loss of Josh McDaniels to the Broncos may be the biggest loss the team has suffered. When he called the plays defenses were kept off balance. There was a sense that he would call any play in the playbook at any time. THEY were the confused ones. Now it looks like the patriots’ offense is confused.
I was shocked to see Brady sitting alone on the bench when the defense was on the field, often not even looking at the game. He had his head down a lot, and looked dejected and confused. I’m used to seeing him sitting with the receivers, or standing on the sidelines next to the coaches.
I have a feeling that it could be a very long year. I’ve read stories about other quarterbacks who had the same injury as Tom, and they all say it takes a full year of playing to get back to where they were before. I assumed that because Brady was a better quarterback than the others (Carson Palmer, Dante Culpepper, Randall Cunningham) and didn’t rely on his legs as much (as his head) that he would be back to his old self a lot sooner. It appears I was wrong. My hope now is that the Pats can keep in the playoff hunt for the first half of the year while Brady gets his act together and the offensive coordinator gets a clue, and then they could make a run in the second half of the year. I was predicting 13 wins or better this year. Now I’m hoping for 10, and that 10 will be enough to get into the playoffs. They should be 0-2 now. I think next week they lose to the Falcons. Then they play Baltimore, which suddenly can score points as well as play terrific defense. They could be 1-3 easily after that game. Then they go to Denver. Another potential loss. They should still beat Tennessee and Tampa Bay before the Bye Week, but by then they could be 3-4, when I expected at least 5-2 and quite possibly 6-1. The second half of the year (always assuming that the offense gets it in gear) should be easier. Except for the games against Indianapolis and New Orleans, the rest of the games look winnable. They could go 7-2. That would put them at 10-6 and could get them in the playoffs. Whether they do anything in the playoffs will depend almost entirely on Tom Brady. Right now they don’t even look like a playoff team. And Tom Brady doesn’t look like Tom Brady.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
How Tom Brady Almost Got Me Killed
Here’s how. Monday Night Football. Patriots against the Bills. Things started poorly. There was not enough oil to make the buffalo wings and French fries, so I had to go back to the store for a second time (and we won’t be discussing the car fiasco from the first trip to the store at this time, or any other if I have my say). The fries ended up overdone too, although the wings came out just right, although just seconds before kickoff. From the beginning of the game it was obvious that things weren’t going well. Tom Brady looked like a guy who hadn’t played any real football (let’s not kid ourselves, the exhibition games were meaningless) for a year, and who was dealing with the physical and mental ramifications of a serious knee injury. He was indecisive. He was inaccurate. He looked uncomfortable. In other words, he looked like an average quarterback, instead of one of the ten best who’ve ever played. And the defense wasn’t helping any. They couldn’t get off the field, letting the Bills move the ball pretty easily on them. Had Jerod Mayo not been injured early in the game things may have been different. Things weren’t going too great while he was in there though, which does not bode well for the rest of the season. He never returned last night. Hopefully it is a minor injury, or things could be really bad. They’re going to have to score a lot of points anyway I think.
At halftime Jayne decided to go to bed. And in the second half things got even worse. Buffalo was making all the right plays, and the Pats couldn’t get any offense going. They had to settle for field goals, when they should have scored touchdowns. Tom continued to play, to be honest, mediocre football. He never threw the ball more than 10-12 yards. No bombs to Galloway or Randy Moss. No deep crossing patterns to Wes Welker. Just dinks and dunks (very much like how he played as a rookie in 2001, only back then they had one of the best defenses in the league and you KNEW they would get more chances). But they couldn’t get into the end zone. Tom just didn’t look like he had it. And when the Bills scored to make it 24-13 late in the 4th it seemed pretty hopeless. It was during that touchdown drive that point where I started yelling at the tv in frustration.
There were 5 and a half minutes left in the game. I still had a little hope, but I knew they had to score quickly, so that they could have a chance to get the ball back. They had 3 timeouts and the two minute warning to stop the clock. If they could score quickly the defense would have a chance to stop the Bills and get Tom the ball back with a minute or so. It was doable (although I had very little confidence that the defense would come through, and only slightly more than a little confidence that Tom would based on how he had been playing up until that point). So when Tom started the next possession by continuing to dink and dunk (3 yards here, 6 yards there, 2 yards more and a first down…..aaaarrrrggghhh!) I really started to lose it. “Moooooooove!!!! I screamed. We don’t have frelling time to do this!!!!” Time was slowly bleeding away. It was under 4 minutes…….then under 3 minutes, and yet Tom kept lollygagging around, as if he had all the time in the world. A pass to Moss for 8……….. another pass to Welker for 6……... Dink…………. Donk……….. Dunk.
“Yougottafuckingscorefasterthanthis!!!!!!!!!!” Finally, Tom throws a touchdown pass to Ben Watson to make it 24-19. But only 2:06 remains on the clock. All the bills would have to do is get one first down on their next possession and the clock would run out. Based on how things had gone up until then it seemed a foregone conclusion that the Bills would get that first down. But then fate took a hand. On the ensuing kickoff the ball was caught in the end zone…….and the runner ran out!!! All he had to do was stand there for a couple seconds and then kneel down for a touchback. The clock would have gone down to the two minute warning, taking away one of the Pats chances to stop the clock. And even had it not run down under two minutes their offense was almost sure to be able to get one first down and run out the clock. And even if they didn’t run out the clock, they could have run it down to about a minute even with the Pats taking all three time outs. A punt then would have left the Pats 70 yards or so to go to win the game. But he decided to come out of the end zone. And was hit hard at the 25. And then continued to struggle to stay on his feet instead of going to the ground! And then had the ball pulled out of his hands!! And recovered on the 30 yard line by the Pats!!! 4 plays later Tom threw another touchdown to Watson, making it 25-24 Patriots. Pandemonium. With 50 seconds left the Bills got the ball back, but couldn’t get close enough to try a field goal and the Pats had an improbable victory. After watching the press conferences I finally went to bed, completely spent emotionally. Jayne was awake, and I apologized for all the ruckus. “It’s a good thing you stopped when you did” she said “because I was just about to come down and kill you. You woke me up about 5 times”.
So, there you have it. How Tom Brady Nearly Got Me Killed. My wife would have been profiled on one of those shows on the We (women’s entertainment) network. Snapped, or something like that. And most women would have agreed she was within her rights to have killed me and buried me under the deck. But as I reminded her, she knew when she got into this marriage that I was a lunatic, especially when sports was involved.
Several players said that Tom predicted they’d win. That during the drive starting with 5:32 left in the game he told them in the huddle “ok, we’re going to go down and score before the 2 minute warning. Then we’re gonna get the ball back somehow, and win the game”. I wish he had let me in on this. It might have saved me some grief (and potentially my life, heh heh)
But still, if you’re reading this Tom, can you do me a favor and make the next few games a little less stressful? Thanks.
At halftime Jayne decided to go to bed. And in the second half things got even worse. Buffalo was making all the right plays, and the Pats couldn’t get any offense going. They had to settle for field goals, when they should have scored touchdowns. Tom continued to play, to be honest, mediocre football. He never threw the ball more than 10-12 yards. No bombs to Galloway or Randy Moss. No deep crossing patterns to Wes Welker. Just dinks and dunks (very much like how he played as a rookie in 2001, only back then they had one of the best defenses in the league and you KNEW they would get more chances). But they couldn’t get into the end zone. Tom just didn’t look like he had it. And when the Bills scored to make it 24-13 late in the 4th it seemed pretty hopeless. It was during that touchdown drive that point where I started yelling at the tv in frustration.
There were 5 and a half minutes left in the game. I still had a little hope, but I knew they had to score quickly, so that they could have a chance to get the ball back. They had 3 timeouts and the two minute warning to stop the clock. If they could score quickly the defense would have a chance to stop the Bills and get Tom the ball back with a minute or so. It was doable (although I had very little confidence that the defense would come through, and only slightly more than a little confidence that Tom would based on how he had been playing up until that point). So when Tom started the next possession by continuing to dink and dunk (3 yards here, 6 yards there, 2 yards more and a first down…..aaaarrrrggghhh!) I really started to lose it. “Moooooooove!!!! I screamed. We don’t have frelling time to do this!!!!” Time was slowly bleeding away. It was under 4 minutes…….then under 3 minutes, and yet Tom kept lollygagging around, as if he had all the time in the world. A pass to Moss for 8……….. another pass to Welker for 6……... Dink…………. Donk……….. Dunk.
“Yougottafuckingscorefasterthanthis!!!!!!!!!!” Finally, Tom throws a touchdown pass to Ben Watson to make it 24-19. But only 2:06 remains on the clock. All the bills would have to do is get one first down on their next possession and the clock would run out. Based on how things had gone up until then it seemed a foregone conclusion that the Bills would get that first down. But then fate took a hand. On the ensuing kickoff the ball was caught in the end zone…….and the runner ran out!!! All he had to do was stand there for a couple seconds and then kneel down for a touchback. The clock would have gone down to the two minute warning, taking away one of the Pats chances to stop the clock. And even had it not run down under two minutes their offense was almost sure to be able to get one first down and run out the clock. And even if they didn’t run out the clock, they could have run it down to about a minute even with the Pats taking all three time outs. A punt then would have left the Pats 70 yards or so to go to win the game. But he decided to come out of the end zone. And was hit hard at the 25. And then continued to struggle to stay on his feet instead of going to the ground! And then had the ball pulled out of his hands!! And recovered on the 30 yard line by the Pats!!! 4 plays later Tom threw another touchdown to Watson, making it 25-24 Patriots. Pandemonium. With 50 seconds left the Bills got the ball back, but couldn’t get close enough to try a field goal and the Pats had an improbable victory. After watching the press conferences I finally went to bed, completely spent emotionally. Jayne was awake, and I apologized for all the ruckus. “It’s a good thing you stopped when you did” she said “because I was just about to come down and kill you. You woke me up about 5 times”.
So, there you have it. How Tom Brady Nearly Got Me Killed. My wife would have been profiled on one of those shows on the We (women’s entertainment) network. Snapped, or something like that. And most women would have agreed she was within her rights to have killed me and buried me under the deck. But as I reminded her, she knew when she got into this marriage that I was a lunatic, especially when sports was involved.
Several players said that Tom predicted they’d win. That during the drive starting with 5:32 left in the game he told them in the huddle “ok, we’re going to go down and score before the 2 minute warning. Then we’re gonna get the ball back somehow, and win the game”. I wish he had let me in on this. It might have saved me some grief (and potentially my life, heh heh)
But still, if you’re reading this Tom, can you do me a favor and make the next few games a little less stressful? Thanks.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
